How are VC and PE investors investing during a recession? (2024)

How are VC and PE investors investing during a recession? (1)

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Contribution by Joao Futscher

Uncertain economic conditions create a constellation of issues and challenges for businesses, but the impact of such difficulties on venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) investors is often overlooked.

Investment requires a degree of confidence, but turbulent economic and political conditions have made this even more difficult to achieve.

We explore how venture capital and private equity investors have been affected by the recent economic turmoil and how these investors are making investment decisions.

In this blog, we answer the following questions:

  • What is venture capital investment?
  • What is private equity investment?
  • How are investors responding to the current challenges?
  • Have specific sectors received more investment than others during this time?
  • How do investors decide on who to invest in during a recession?
  • How can you attract investors?
  • Why do the best investment returns come after a recession?

Every company launches with an idea but getting this idea off the launchpad is fraught with difficulties. That’s why funding is a crucial component of any new business idea. For many businesspeople, VC and PE investors provide the critical financial facility in the initial stages of growth.

However, generating investment interest has recently become increasingly challenging if the business has little or no commercial traction.

Related article | What are the different stages of funding for a business?

What is venture capital investment?

VC investment is a form of private equity that funds startups and early-stage emerging businesses with little to no operating history but significant potential for growth. It provides long-term funding for a share of the equity. It also offers access to technical support, a wide network of partners and experts, managerial expertise and experience.

Related article | What’s the right investment route for growth potential startup?

Typically, VCs invest amounts from £50,000 up to £2m with an expectation of receiving 10x their initial investment.

What is private equity investment?

PE investment refers to a wide range of investment funds that invest in or acquire private companies. Typically, they invest in mature, high-risk businesses in more conventional industries, such as healthcare and software, in return for an equity stake in the company.

Related article | Flags for investment – is your business ready to fundraise?

PE investors tend to invest £3m+ with an expectation they will recoup 3-4x the initial investment. They aim to increase the overall value of the investment and then crystallise their gains through a sale, flotation (IPO), merger, or recapitalisation.

However, although VC and PE investors are different, there can be some overlaps. For example, you can have early-stage VCs who invest in fledgling businesses and late-stage VCs who invest in more established businesses.

How are investors responding to the current challenges?

The coming months will continue to be a testing time for VC and PE investors as financial market conditions become more volatile, higher interest rates impact confidence and disposable income, and risk appetite begins to fall.

Smart investors aren’t waiting for more clarity; top-tier VC and PE investors are deep into planning mode to safeguard portfolio companies and futureproof the businesses from rising prices to account for the many risks associated with current market conditions.

Have specific sectors received more investment than others during this time?

According to a press release from KMPG, in the first quarter of 2022, the leading sectors for mid-market private equity activity are business services and technology, media, and telecom sectors dominated, accounting for over 60% of mid-market deals. The continued trend for remote working and digitally enabled services helped to consolidate this trend.

KPMG’s report also highlights the strong performance of healthcare and financial services, with the proportion of deal volumes growing in the first half of the year with 10% and 11%, respectively.

How do investors decide on who to invest in during a recession?

The good news is that investor appetite for growing UK companies, particularly tech-enabled UK businesses, continues.

Investors won’t stop wanting to make money. A recession may lead to the birth of more efficient companies. These lean businesses make investors hungry to invest in innovative technologies that have been developed in response to lower economic growth. For example, the innovation of the business services and technology and healthcare sectors have generated some of the strongest mid-market private equity activity, according to the report from KPMG.

As Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) become central to the corporate agenda, dealmakers will scout for deals that offer this angle. Due to their shortage, the multiples of these deals will likely rise significantly as they grapple with delivering on these environmental, social and governance commitments.

How can you attract investors?

A positive economic outlook brings an accessible pot of investor funds, but how can businesses attract investors during an economic downturn?

Under challenging conditions, cash is king. Businesses may need to cut frivolous expenditure and streamline their cash collection process to ensure they can continue to operate efficiently. This may consist of taking the focus off growth and sidelining new projects. Well-managed companies that have low debt, strong cash flow, and good balance sheets will be best placed to take advantage of available investment funds.

While a compelling vision, a market/product fit and a strong business plan can catch the eye of investors, robust accounting practices remain at the core of an investor’s requirements. If entrepreneurs can show increasing market share, strong cash flow and an upward revenue trend, these growth characteristics will make the business more attractive to investors.

In addition to the information and research outlined in this blog, the Enterprise Investment Scheme can also be used to encourage angel investors to invest by offering tax benefits. We’ve written extensively on the tax incentive here.

Why do the best investment returns come after a recession?

Recessions can create buying opportunities for investors who typically would have to pay a premium for high-quality assets under normal market conditions.

According to the latest mid-year private equity report by Bain Consulting, equity investors earn higher internal rates of return in years following recessions. In general, these investments during recovery years have “consistently outperformed the long-term averages, especially investments in top-quartile deals.”

Related article | What does the private equity investment journey look like?

Having amassed several decades of combined experience working with a range of tech-enabled businesses and an extensive network of investors, iFD has gained a unique insight into the fundraising options available to founders, particularly during challenging and uncertain times.

Please feel free to schedule a chat with this link if you think we can help.

(Image source: Shutterstock)

How are VC and PE investors investing during a recession? (2024)

FAQs

How are VC and PE investors investing during a recession? ›

Typically, they invest in mature, high-risk businesses in more conventional industries, such as healthcare and software, in return for an equity stake in the company.

How do venture capital firms do in a recession? ›

Economic downturns can severely affect the venture capital ecosystem, changing the dynamics of investment, valuation, and liquidity. During such periods, VC firms face a host of challenges, with decreased valuations, tightened funding rounds, and liquidity constraints being the biggest issues.

How does private equity do during a recession? ›

Private equity can be a very well-performing asset class during a recession. By understanding the risks and opportunities and having the right processes and technologies in place, your firm can punch above its weight and deliver high-quality returns to its LPs.

How do investors make money during a recession? ›

Many investors turn to stocks in companies that sell consumer staples like health care, food and beverages, and personal hygiene products. These businesses typically remain profitable during recessions and their share prices tend to better resist stock market sell-offs.

How do you invest wisely during a recession? ›

5 Things to Invest in When a Recession Hits
  1. Seek Out Core Sector Stocks. During a recession, you might be inclined to give up on stocks, but experts say it's best not to flee equities completely. ...
  2. Focus on Reliable Dividend Stocks. ...
  3. Consider Buying Real Estate. ...
  4. Purchase Precious Metal Investments. ...
  5. “Invest” in Yourself.
Dec 9, 2023

What happens to investors in a recession? ›

During a recession, the stock market is volatile as share prices go through extreme swings due to investors reacting to both positive and negative news. Many investors will start to sell shares to liquidate assets and hold on to cash if they fear further portfolio losses.

What happens to business investors during a recession? ›

How Do Recessions Affect Investors? Typically during the early part of a recession, the stock market has negative returns. This is often because of the negative sentiment around poor or lackluster corporate earnings. But the stock market will often recover before the recession is over.

Why are private equity firms more active during economic recessions? ›

Recessions can create buying opportunities for investors who typically would have to pay a premium for high-quality assets under normal market conditions. According to the latest mid-year private equity report by Bain Consulting, equity investors earn higher internal rates of return in years following recessions.

What is the best way to profit from a recession? ›

What businesses are profitable in a recession? Many investors turn to stocks in companies that sell consumer staples like health care, food and beverages, and personal hygiene products. These businesses typically remain profitable during recessions and their share prices tend to better resist stock market sell-offs.

Is it a good idea to invest during a recession? ›

Some stock market sectors, like health care and consumer staples, generally perform better than others in a recession. Healthy large cap stocks also tend to hold up relatively well during downturns. Investing in broad funds can help reduce recession risk through diversification.

What is the best asset to hold during a recession? ›

Still, here are seven types of investments that could position your portfolio for resilience if recession is on your mind:
  • Defensive sector stocks and funds.
  • Dividend-paying large-cap stocks.
  • Government bonds and top-rated corporate bonds.
  • Treasury bonds.
  • Gold.
  • Real estate.
  • Cash and cash equivalents.
Nov 30, 2023

Where is money safest during a recession? ›

You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC and NCUA deposit insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.

What are the best bonds during a recession? ›

US Treasury Bond/ Federal Bonds

Federal bonds or US Treasury bonds are issued by the Federal Reserve System (made up of the central bank and monetary authority of the United States.) Investors favor Treasury bonds during a recession because they're considered to be a safe investment.

What not to invest in during a recession? ›

Most stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while lower-risk assets—such as gold and U.S. Treasuries—tend to appreciate.

What sectors thrive in a recession? ›

There are also fundamental services that consumers can't do without, even in hard times.
  • Accountants. ...
  • Healthcare Providers. ...
  • Financial Advisors and Economists. ...
  • Auto Repair and Maintenance. ...
  • Home Maintenance Stores. ...
  • Home Staging Experts. ...
  • Rental Agents and Property Management Companies. ...
  • Grocery Stores.

Is cash king during a recession? ›

Cash Is King During a Recession

As companies cut back and job losses mount, “it's better to be safe than sorry and beef up cash reserves during times of high employment.” However, selling investments to get cash in anticipation of a recession is risky. You might sell prematurely and get trapped in cash as markets rise.

Is venture capital drying up? ›

Late-Stage Deal Activity Continues to Decline

For all 2023, $80.4 billion was invested in 4,305 deals, which was down from the $94 billion invested in 4,687 deals in 2022. The lack of progress, exit activity and high interest rates created problems both for investors and founders of late-stage VC-backed companies.

Do venture capitalists get their money back? ›

The venture capital partners agree to return all of the investors' capital before sharing in the upside. However, the fund typically pays for the investors' annual operating budget—2% to 3% of the pool's total capital—which they take as a management fee regardless of the fund's results.

Why would a venture capitalist want to exit a growing company? ›

Most equity investments by angel investors and VCs are reliant on the successful business exit in order to see a return on their investment. This means that entrepreneurs are extremely unlikely to raise equity funding from external investors unless they cover exit strategy in their pitch and business plan.

What is the most profitable way for a venture capitalist to exit an investment? ›

Common Exit Strategies for Venture Investing

Initial Public Offering (IPO): An IPO is when a company sells shares of its stock to the public for the first time. This is typically the most lucrative exit strategy for investors, as it can lead to significant returns if the company's stock performs well.

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